Probabilistic Logic and Monty hall game

Consider a single player game with a nugget hidden under one of the with 3 upside-down cups  and suppose (without loss of generality) that the player chooses cup 1. Now the game maker lifts cup 2 and shows the player that it is empty  and gives him the option to either change his earlier choice or  stick to it.
Monty.png
We want to know if the player can gain from switching his choice to cup 3. So we have to compare the probability of choosing the nugget by
staying with cup 1, and the probability of choosing the nugget by switching to cup 3.
Let E1 be the event “nugget is under is cup 1,” let E2 be the event “nugget is under cup 3,” and let E3 be the event “Game maker lifts cup 2 and its empty.”
Since from the player’s initial reasoning, the nugget is equally likely to be under any of the three doors, Pr(E1) = Pr(E2) = 1/3
We want to know Pr(E1|E3) and Pr(E2|E3).
According to bayes rule:
Pr(E1|E3) = Pr(E3|E1).Pr(E1)/ Pr(E3) = 1/3 × Pr(E3|E1) / Pr(E3)
Pr(E2|E3) = Pr(E3|E2).Pr(E2)/ Pr(E3) = 1/3 × Pr(E3|E2) / Pr(E3)
First, suppose Game maker randomly picks one of the remaining cups. The probability that he picks cup 2 is then 1/2. The probability that there’s a no nugget  under any given cup is 1 − 1/3 = 2/3, so the probability that game maker picks cup 2 and it is empty is Pr(E3) = 1/2× 2/3 = 1/3
because the two events are independent by our assumption that game maker picks randomly.
We now need to determine Pr(E3|E1) and Pr(E3|E2). If the nugget is under cup 1, then cup 2 certainly is empty, and hence the probability that game maker picks cup2 and cup 2 is empty, is equal the probability that game maker picks cup2 : Pr(E3|E1) = 1/2.
Similarly, if the nugget is under cup 3, then also  cup 2 is empty for sure, yielding Pr(E3|E2) = 1/2.
Putting all this together yields:
Pr(E1|E3) =1/3 ×1/2 1/3=1/2
Pr(E2|E3) = 1/3 × 1/2 1/3 = 1/2
Hence, the player cannot gain from switching. This is not surprising: if game maker makes a random choice, his action reveals nothing.

we  realize that there is another case we should deal with and which is an example of strategic thinking.

Suppose now that game maker would never pick a cup with a nugget under it (much more likely in a real monty hall show).  As before, Pr(E3 | E1) = 1/2 because if the nugget is under  cup 1, then both cup 2 and 3 certainly are empty, and so game maker will pick randomly between them. However, Pr(E3|E2) = 1 because if the nugget is under cup 3, then cup 2 certainly is empty, but sincegame maker never reveals the nugget (and cannot pick cup 1 because the player already picked it), he will certainly pick cup 2. Finally, because game maker will never pick a cup with nugget under it, Pr(E3) = 1/2.
You can use the total probability theorem to obtain this number.
Let “2” denote the event “the nugget is under cup 2.” Then:
Pr(E3) = Pr(E3|E1)Pr(E1) + Pr(E3|2) Pr(2) + Pr(E3|E2) Pr(E2) = 1/2×1/3 + 0×1/3 + 1 × 1/3 = 1/6 + 1/3 = 1/2.
We used the fact that the probability of the event “Game maker picks cup 2 and it is empty” is zero if there is a nugget under that cup: Pr(E3|2) = 0.
This now yields:
Pr(E1|E3) = (1/2×1/3)/( 1/2) = 1/3
Pr(E2|E3) = (1×1/3 )/(1/2) = 2/3.
Since Pr(E2|E3) > Pr(E1|E3), the player should definitely switch.
The reason is that game maker’s informed choice is a public announcement that reveals additional information which the player should incorporate in his beliefs.

Course: Epistemic Game Theory

People: Andres Perea

  1. Introduction
  2. Part I: Standard beliefs in static games
    1. Belief in the opponent’s rationality
    2. Common belief in rationality
    3. Simple belief hierarchies
  3. Part II: Lexicographic beliefs in static games
    1. Primary belief in the opponent’s rationality
    2. Respecting the opponent’s preferences
    3. Assuming the opponent’s rationality
  4. Part III: Conditional beliefs in dynamic games
    1. Belief in the opponents’ future rationality
    2. Strong belief in the opponent’s  rationality

 

Practical and Theoretical problems in every chapter.

 

Finding Optimal Paths

Given a  search space, apply search and find the solution quickly and make sure that solution is optimal. i.e, both look up cost and execution cost must be minimum.

Brute force procedure

BritishMuseum (){

  1. Explore the entire search space;
  2. return the optimal solution;

}

Branch&Bound(){

  1. open <- {(start, NIL, Cost(start))}
  2. closed <- {}
  3. while TRUE
  4.   do if Empty(open)
  5.                   then return FAILURE;
  6.   pick  the cheapest node n from  open
  7.   if GoalTest(Head(n))
  8.            then return ReconstructPath(n)
  9.    else  children <- MoveGen(Head(n))
  10.              for each m ∈ children{
  11.                       do Cost(m) <- Cost(n) + K(m, n)
  12.                        Add  (m, Head(n), Cost(m) ) to open }

}

 

 

GeneralisedBranch&Bound(){

  1. start with all possible solutions
  2. repeat
  3.      Refine the least ( Estimated cost ) solution further
  4. until the cheapest solution is fully refined
  5. return s

}

 

Dijkstra’s Alg(){

  1. Color all nodes white
  2. cost(start) <- 0
  3. parent(start) <- NIL
  4. for all other nodes n
  5.        do cost(n) <- ∞
  6. repeat
  7.     select lowest cost white node n
  8.      color n black
  9.      for all white neighbors m of n
  10.             do if (const(n) + k(n, m)) < cost(m)
  11.                   then cost(m) = const(n) + k(n, m)
  12.                             parent(m) <- n
  13. until all nodes are colored black

}

A*(){

// heuristic fun f(n) = g(n) + h(n)

//g(n) =known cost of path found from S to n

//h(n) = Estimated cost of path from n to G

  1. open <- List(start)
  2. f(start) <- h(start)
  3. parent(start) <- NIL
  4. closed <- {}
  5. while open is not EMPTY
  6.    do
  7.        Remove node n from open such that f(n) has the lowest value
  8.        Add n to closed
  9.        if GoalTest(n) == TRUE
  10.             then return Reconstructpath(n)
  11.        neighbors <- MoveGen(n)
  12.        for each m ∈ neighbors
  13.               do switch
  14.                    case m ∉ open and m ∉ closed : /* new node */
  15.                            Add m to open
  16.                            parent(m) <- n
  17.                            g(m) <- g(n) + k(n, m)
  18.                            f(m) <- g(m) + h(m)
  19.                     case m ∈ open :
  20.                            if (g(n) + k(n, m) ) < g(m)
  21.                                   then  parent(m) <- n
  22.                                              g(m) <- g(n) + k(n, m )
  23.                                              f(m) <- g(m) + h(m)
  24.                     case m ∈ closed :
  25.                            if (g(n) + k(n, m) ) < g(m)
  26.                                   then  parent(m) <- n
  27.                                              g(m) <- g(n) + k(n, m )
  28.                                              f(m) <- g(m) + h(m)
  29.                                             propagateImprovement(m)
  30. return FAILURE

}

PropagateImprovement(m){

  1.  neighbours <- MoveGen(m)
  2. for each  s ∈ neighbours
  3.         do newGvalue <- g(m)  + k(m, s)
  4.               if newGvalue < g(s)
  5.                   then parent(s) <- m
  6.                             g(s) <- newGvalue
  7.                             if s ∈ closed
  8.                                   then PropagateImprovement(s)

}

 

Admissibility of A*

Assumptions:

  1. The branching factor is finite

Game Play

Board Games:

  • two persons,
  • Zero sum,
  • complete information,
  • alternative moves, and
  • deterministic games.

Convention of game trees

 

  • MiniMax()
  • AlphaBeta()

Pruning1

In above figure, Max has found

  • SSS*()
  • B*()

Rl vs Chunking(EBL) In SOAR

Reinforcement learning (RL) in Soar allows agents to alter behavior over time by
dynamically changing numerical indifferent preferences in procedural memory in response
to a reward signal.

This learning mechanism contrasts starkly with chunking.  Whereas
chunking is a one-shot form of learning that increases agent execution performance by
summarizing sub-goal results, RL is an incremental form of learning that probabilistically
alters agent behavior.

Euchre vs Bridge

Many people say that the games, bridge and Euchre are very similar to each other and if you like to play one than you will more than likely enjoy playing the other as well.

Bridge:

  • four people and two sets of partners that are playing with each other against the other team
  • A full standard deck of 52 cards is used;
  • all the cards are dealt in a circle one by one until each player has 13 cards.
  • Then a team bids how many tricks they will at least win and also what  suit is trump or no suit as trump.
  • The player then begins to play to the left and whoever wins the most tricks or the number that they declared wins that round.

Euchre:

  • four players in two competing partnerships.
  • only 24 cards in play, the cards that are used are 9, 10, Jacks, Queens, Kings and Aces.
  • The first team to score 10 points win the whole game.
  • the first team to win max tricks wins the round
  • Five cards are dealt to each player and the rest are put face down in the middle – these cards are used for different purposes depending on the rules you are using similarly to bridge a trump suit is declared and then the game follows.
  • Many say that Euchre is an abstracted version of Bridge but both games are very enjoyable to play!

Not many games are as methodical as Bridge, and this makes many Bridge players fanatical in their dedication to the game.   The game developed from Whist, and in particular a variant called Russian Whist.  Computer bridge players though not yet challenging to Experts but they has a real time explanation of what bids mean as well as an extensive help file, so is ideal for beginners and experts.

Bridge Best Links

wolrdbridge.org – World Bridge Federation
acbl.org – the American Contract Bridge League
Cats at Cards – how to play Contract Bridge
Bridge Winners – great information on all things Bridge
Bridge+ this is a great French Bridge Site
Fifth Chair Bridge Foundation for those who need another chair!
Karen’s Bridge Library – well worth a look
The House Of Cards – a great resource for all card games
Wikipedia – the classic resource

Euchre Best Links

Cats at Cards – a very good manual on Euchre rules
The House Of Cards – great Euchre resource
Pagat – a terrific site for lots of card game rules
Euchre – There Is No Other Card Game site
Championship Euchre – for PalmOS PDA’s

Knowledge is in need of scripting

These days in pursuit of certainty, I have made many many academic gurus online and offline, directly and indirectly, through textbooks or Moocs or live class rooms here at IITM.

So these knowledge i have been gaining must pen down …else due to my bounded resources and capabilities, i am highly prone to forgetfulness .

Few courses i have taken at IIT

AI: Artificial Intelligence By Prof. Deepak Khemani

NLP: Natural Language Processing By Prof. Sutanu Chakraborthy

FunDaS: Algorithmic foundations of Data Science By Prof. John Augustine

CA: Computer Architecture By Prof.Chandra shekar

MCCS: Mathematical Concepts for Computer Science By Prof. Raghavendra rao and Prof. Jayalal sharma

ADSA: Advanced Data Structures and Algorithms by Prof. John Augustine and Prof. Meghana Nasre

APL: Advanced Programming Lab by Prof. John Augustine and Prof. Meghana Nasre

KRR: Knowledge Representation and Reasoning. by Prof. Deepak Khemani

PnCS: Planning and Constraint Satisfaction by Prof.Deepak Khemani and Prof. Narayana Swami.

TAO: Theory and Applications of Ontologies by Prof.Sreenivas Kumar.

MBR: Memory Based Reasoning in AI.by Prof. Sutanu Chakraborthy.

Few Courses online

Society of Mind by Prof.Marvin Minsky.

Artificial Intelligence by Patrick Winston.

Intro to Logic by M.Genesereth

General Game Playing by M.Genesereth

KBAI : Prof.Ashok goel

Game Theory by

NLP by Jurafsky

Algorithmic Game Theory

Flow of my research.

what is Epistemic Logic and reasoning

  • what is modal logic and how knowledge and belief are represented and reasoned
  • what is possible world semantics
  • what is multi agent system
  • what are kripke structures
  • how are these logics axiomatized. S5 system
  • group knowledge and common knowledge and public announcements
  • what is dynamic epistemic logic
  • how can uncertainty  modeled in epistemic logic.
  • belief itself is unsure or uncertain knowledge .a probabilistic and possibilistic approach
  • probabilistic update models for systems state change
  • games in DEL
  • how can Reinforcement Learning helps in knowledge acquisition
  • how can a bridge be an ideal playground to test our study.
  • details of contract bridge game and how an expert plays the game
  • meta reasoning or higher order reasoning
  • what is a strategy?
  • rational choice or decision making
  • modeling agent, cooperating agent and competitive agent
  • Experimental results